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Reducing Planetary Health Risks Through Short‐Lived Climate Forcer Mitigation

Authors: Yiqi Zheng; Nadine Unger;

Reducing Planetary Health Risks Through Short‐Lived Climate Forcer Mitigation

Abstract

AbstractGlobal air pollution and climate change are major threats to planetary health. These threats are strongly linked through the short‐lived climate forcers (SLCFs); ozone (O3), aerosols, and methane (CH4). Understanding the impacts of ambitious SLCF mitigation in different source emission sectors on planetary health indicators can help prioritize international air pollution control strategies. A global Earth system model is applied to quantify the impacts of idealized 50% sustained reductions in year 2005 emissions in the eight largest global anthropogenic source sectors on the SLCFs and three indicators of planetary health: global mean surface air temperature change (∆GSAT), avoided PM2.5‐related premature mortalities and gross primary productivity (GPP). The model represents fully coupled atmospheric chemistry, aerosols, land ecosystems and climate, and includes dynamic CH4. Avoided global warming is modest, with largest impacts from 50% cuts in domestic (−0.085 K), agriculture (−0.034 K), and waste/landfill (−0.033 K). The 50% cuts in energy, domestic, and agriculture sector emissions offer the largest opportunities to mitigate global PM2.5‐related health risk at around 5%–7% each. Such small global impacts underline the challenges ahead in achieving the World Health Organization aspirational goal of a 2/3 reduction in the number of deaths from air pollution by 2030. Uncertainty due to natural climate variability in PM2.5 is an important underplayed dimension in global health risk assessment that can vastly exceed uncertainty due to the concentration‐response functions at the large regional scale. Globally, cuts to agriculture and domestic sector emissions are the most attractive targets to achieve climate and health co‐benefits through SLCF mitigation.

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Keywords

radiative forcing, PM2.5, human health, air quality, Environmental protection, climate change, TD169-171.8, premature deaths, Research Article

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold