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Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity

Authors: Anton Orlov; Steven De Hertog; Felix Havermann; Suqi Guo; Fei Luo; Iris Manola; Wim Thiery; +7 Authors

Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity

Abstract

AbstractGlobal warming is expected to exacerbate heat stress. Additionally, biogeophysical effects of land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) could substantially alter temperature and relative humidity locally and non‐locally. Thereby, LCLMC could affect the occupational capacity to safely perform physical work under hot environments (labor capacity). However, these effects have never been quantified globally using a multi‐model setup. Building on results from stylized sensitivity experiments of (a) cropland expansion, (b) irrigation expansion, and (c) afforestation conducted by three fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs), we assess the local as well as non‐local effects on heat stress and labor capacity. We found that LCLMC leads to substantial changes in temperature; however, the concomitant changes in humidity could largely diminish the combined impact on moist heat. Moreover, cropland expansion and afforestation cause inconsistent responses of day‐ and night‐time temperature, which has strong implications for labor capacity. Across the ESMs, the results are mixed in terms of sign and magnitude. Overall, LCLMC result in non‐negligible impacts on heat stress and labor capacity in low‐latitude regions during the warmest seasons. In some locations, the changes of monthly average labor capacity, which are induced by the local effects of individual LCLMC options, could reach −14 and +15 percentage points. Thus, LCLMC‐induced impacts on heat stress and their consequences for adaptation should be accounted for when designing LCLMC‐related policies to ensure sustainable development.

Countries
Norway, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands
Keywords

690, 330, labor productivity, Ecology, land management, 500, sustainability, heat stress, Environmental sciences, Sustainability, land cover, Land management, labor capacity, GE1-350, QH540-549.5

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold