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Earth's Future
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Earth's Future
Article . 2024
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Global Projection of Flood Risk With a Bivariate Framework Under 1.5–3.0°C Warming Levels

Authors: Xi Huang; Jiabo Yin; Louise J. Slater; Shengyu Kang; Shaokun He; Pan Liu;

Global Projection of Flood Risk With a Bivariate Framework Under 1.5–3.0°C Warming Levels

Abstract

AbstractGlobal warming increases the atmospheric water‐holding capacity, consequently altering the frequency, and intensity of extreme hydrological events. River floods characterized by large peak flow or prolonged duration can amplify the risk of social disruption and affect ecosystem stability. However, previous studies have mostly focused on univariate flood magnitude characteristics, such as flood peak or volume, and there is still limited understanding of how these joint flood characteristics (i.e., magnitude and duration) might co‐evolve under different warming levels. Here, we develop a systematical bivariate framework to project future flood risk in 11,528 catchments across the globe. By constructing the joint distribution of flood peak and duration with copulas, we examine global flood risk with a bivariate framework under varying levels of global warming (i.e., within a range of 1.5–3.0°C above pre‐industrial levels). The flood projections are produced by driving five calibrated lumped hydrological models (HMs) using the simulations with bias adjustment of five global climate models (GCMs) under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). On average, global warming from 1.5 to 3.0°C tends to amplify flood peak and lengthen flood duration across almost all continents, but changes are not unidirectional and vary regionally around the globe. The joint return period (JRP) of the historical (1985–2014) 50‐year flood event is projected to decrease to a median with 36 years under a medium emission pathway at the 1.5°C warming level. Finally, we evaluate the drivers of these JRP changes in the future climate and quantify the uncertainty arising from the different GCMs, SSPs, and HMs. Our findings highlight the importance of limiting greenhouse gas emission to slow down global warming and developing climate adaptation strategies to address future flood hazards.

Country
United Kingdom
Related Organizations
Keywords

Ecology, flood, Environmental sciences, climate change, bivariate analysis, hydrological projection, GE1-350, QH540-549.5

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold