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Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 01 May 2022Embargo end date: 05 Nov 2022 Germany, Germany, Netherlands, France, France, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Finland, Italy Publisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLCJournal:Nature Climate Change, volume 12, pages 428-435 (issn: 1758-678X, eissn: 1758-6798,

Authors: Guivarch, Céline; Le Gallic, Thomas; Bauer, Nico; Fragkos, Panagiotis; Huppmann, Daniel; Jaxa-Rozen, Marc; Keppo, Ilkka; +10 Authors

doi: 10.1038/s41558-022-01349-x

handle: 11311/1251605

Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

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Abstract

As they are gaining new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to Net Zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared to the use of single scenarios. Yet, several significant challenges have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges, and existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address them within a three-step approach: (i) pre-processing the ensemble, (ii) either selecting a few scenarios or analyzing the full ensemble, and (iii) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Countries

Germany, Germany, Netherlands, France, France, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Finland, Italy

Related Organizations

University College of London
United Kingdom
University College London
United Kingdom
French National Centre for Scientific Research
France
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ)
Brazil
University College London
United Kingdom

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Keywords

550, UNCERTAINTY, PARIS AGREEMENT, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), INVESTMENT NEEDS, 333, ENERGY, Taverne, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, FUTURES, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, LOW-CARBON WORLD, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, POLICY, MODEL, CO2 EMISSIONS, DISCOVERY, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

Impact byBIP!

	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	45
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Top 10%
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 1%