<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>');
document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=undefined&type=result"></script>');
-->
</script>

COPY SCRIPT

For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 18 Jan 2021Embargo end date: 01 Jan 2021 Germany, Austria, Belgium, United Kingdom, Switzerland Publisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLCJournal:Communications Earth & Environment, volume 2 (eissn: 2662-4435,

Authors: Reto Knutti; Nadine Mengis; Nadine Mengis; Karsten Haustein; Christopher J. Smith; Katarzyna B. Tokarska; H. Damon Matthews; +5 Authors

doi: 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9 , 10.3929/ethz-b-000477488

handle: 20.500.14017/8eba1ece-246b-4fee-bf30-08aee2e3eb5e , 10044/1/90424

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

- Summary
- Subjects
- Related research
  (2)
- Metrics

Abstract

AbstractThe remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.

Countries

Germany, Austria, Belgium, United Kingdom, Switzerland

Related Organizations

University of Chicago
United States
University of Oxford
United Kingdom
Simon Fraser University Library
Canada
University of Leeds
United Kingdom
Environmental Change Institute (ECI) Oxford University Centre for the Environment University of Oxford
United Kingdom

View all View all

Keywords

EMISSION BUDGETS, 550, TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, ZERO EMISSIONS, IMPULSE-RESPONSE, OCEAN, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, TEMPERATURE, Multidisciplinary, Science & Technology, CUMULATIVE CARBON, Geology, MODEL, 1.5 DEGREES-C, CO2 EMISSIONS, Physical Sciences, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Geosciences, Environmental Sciences

2 Research products, page 1 of 1

FAIR software on GitHub
IsRelatedTo
remaining_carbon_budgets software on GitHub
IsRelatedTo

Impact byBIP!

	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	75
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 1%
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Top 10%
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 1%