Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
Copyright policy )Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
Significance One of the most concerning consequences of human-induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is the potential for rapid regional transitions in the climate system. Yet, despite much public awareness of how “tipping points” may be crossed, little information is available as to exactly what may be expected in the coming centuries. We assess all Earth System Models underpinning the recent 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and systematically search for evidence of abrupt changes. We do find abrupt changes in sea ice, oceanic flows, land ice, and terrestrial ecosystem response, although with little consistency among the models. A particularly large number is projected for warming levels below 2°. We discuss mechanisms and include methods to objectively classify abrupt climate change.
- Wageningen University & Research Netherlands
- Max Planck Institute of Neurobiology Germany
- CEA LETI France
- Max Planck Society Germany
- National Oceanography Centre United Kingdom
Leerstoelgroep Aquatische ecologie en waterkwaliteitsbeheer, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, critical transitions, 550, 551, Ecology and Environment, 333, Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology and Climatology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Life Science, CMIP5, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, abrupt climate change, SDG 15 - Life on Land, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, WIMEK, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, IPCC, Aquatische Ecologie en Waterkwaliteitsbeheer, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Biology and Microbiology, climate change, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Leerstoelgroep Aquatische ecologie en waterkwaliteitsbeheer, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, critical transitions, 550, 551, Ecology and Environment, 333, Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology and Climatology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Life Science, CMIP5, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, abrupt climate change, SDG 15 - Life on Land, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, WIMEK, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, IPCC, Aquatische Ecologie en Waterkwaliteitsbeheer, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Biology and Microbiology, climate change, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
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