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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches

Authors: Astigarraga, Julen; Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco; Zavala, Miguel; Vilà-Cabrera, Albert; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; +10 Authors

Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches

Abstract

Although climate change is expected to drive tree species toward colder and wetter regions of their distribution, broadscale empirical evidence is lacking. One possibility is that past and present human activities in forests obscure or alter the effects of climate. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species density within their climatic niches across Northern Hemisphere forests. We observe a reduction in mean density across species, coupled with a tendency toward increasing tree size. However, the direction and magnitude of changes in density exhibit considerable variability between species, influenced by stand development that results from previous stand-level disturbances. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a significant change in density toward cold and wet climatic conditions for 43% of the species, compared to only 14% of species significantly changing their density toward warm and arid conditions in both early- and late-development stands. The observed changes in climate-driven density showed no clear association with species traits related to drought tolerance, recruitment and dispersal capacity, or resource use, nor with the temperature or aridity affiliation of the species, leaving the underlying mechanism uncertain. Forest conservation policies and associated management strategies might want to consider anticipated long-term species range shifts alongside the integration of contemporary within-distribution density changes.

Countries
France, Netherlands, France, Austria, Finland, Spain, Switzerland, Spain, Austria, Spain
Keywords

forest dynamics, 550, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Climate Change, Climate, Forests, climatic sensitivity, stand development, Species density, Forest dynamics, Environmental science, Trees, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, SDG 13 - Climate Action, 401209 Waldwachstum, Climate change, Ecosystem, Botánica, Botany, Temperature, species density | climate change | climatic sensitivity | stand development | forest dynamics, Biological Sciences, Climatic sensitivity, Stand development, Droughts, [SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio], [SDV.EE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, climate change, 401209 Forest growth, SDG 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz, species density; climate change;  climatic sensitivity; stand development; forest dynamics, Medio ambiente, environment, species density

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
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