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Decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation main cause of future west European summer atmospheric circulation changes

We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.
- University of Southampton United Kingdom
- Utrecht University Netherlands
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Netherlands
- National Oceanography Centre United Kingdom
550, Science, Physics, QC1-999, atmosphere-ocean coupling, atmosphere−ocean coupling, Q, dynamics, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Environmental sciences, climate change, regional response, SDG 13 - Climate Action, GE1-350, TD1-1066
550, Science, Physics, QC1-999, atmosphere-ocean coupling, atmosphere−ocean coupling, Q, dynamics, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Environmental sciences, climate change, regional response, SDG 13 - Climate Action, GE1-350, TD1-1066
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).54 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
