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Environmental Research Letters
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Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries

Authors: Ivan D. Haigh; Anaïs Couasnon; Hessel Winsemius; Hessel Winsemius; Dirk Eilander; Ted Veldkamp; Ted Veldkamp; +4 Authors

Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries

Abstract

When river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts are often worse than when they occur in isolation; such floods are examples of ‘compound events’. To better understand the impacts of these compound events, we require an improved understanding of the dependence between coastal and river flooding on a global scale. Therefore, in this letter, we: provide the first assessment and mapping of the dependence between observed high sea-levels and high river discharge for deltas and estuaries around the globe; and demonstrate how this dependence may influence the joint probability of floods exceeding both the design discharge and design sea-level. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependence between observed sea-levels (and skew surge) from the GESLA-2 dataset, and river discharge using gauged data from the Global Runoff Data Centre, for 187 combinations of stations across the globe. Dependence was assessed using Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient () and copula models. We find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 22% of the stations studied, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 36% of the stations studied. Allowing a time-lag between the two variables up to 5 days, we find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 56% of stations, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 54% of stations. Using copula models, we show that the joint exceedance probability of events in which both the design discharge and design sea-level are exceeded can be several magnitudes higher when the dependence is considered, compared to when independence is assumed. We discuss several implications, showing that flood risk assessments in these regions should correctly account for these joint exceedance probabilities.

Countries
United States, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Netherlands
Keywords

compound flood, river flooding, Science, QC1-999, Coastal flooding, flood risk, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, 333, Flood, Environmental Science(all), Flood risk, GE1-350, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, Renewable Energy, TD1-1066, Sustainability and the Environment, Physics, Q, River flooding, Environmental and Occupational Health, coastal flooding, flood, Compound flood, SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities, Environmental sciences, Public Health

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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