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Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries

When river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts are often worse than when they occur in isolation; such floods are examples of ‘compound events’. To better understand the impacts of these compound events, we require an improved understanding of the dependence between coastal and river flooding on a global scale. Therefore, in this letter, we: provide the first assessment and mapping of the dependence between observed high sea-levels and high river discharge for deltas and estuaries around the globe; and demonstrate how this dependence may influence the joint probability of floods exceeding both the design discharge and design sea-level. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependence between observed sea-levels (and skew surge) from the GESLA-2 dataset, and river discharge using gauged data from the Global Runoff Data Centre, for 187 combinations of stations across the globe. Dependence was assessed using Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient () and copula models. We find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 22% of the stations studied, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 36% of the stations studied. Allowing a time-lag between the two variables up to 5 days, we find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 56% of stations, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 54% of stations. Using copula models, we show that the joint exceedance probability of events in which both the design discharge and design sea-level are exceeded can be several magnitudes higher when the dependence is considered, compared to when independence is assumed. We discuss several implications, showing that flood risk assessments in these regions should correctly account for these joint exceedance probabilities.
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands
- Free University of Amsterdam Pure VU Amsterdam Netherlands
- University of Central Florida United States
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Austria
- Delft University of Technology Netherlands
compound flood, river flooding, Science, QC1-999, Coastal flooding, flood risk, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, 333, Flood, Environmental Science(all), Flood risk, GE1-350, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, Renewable Energy, TD1-1066, Sustainability and the Environment, Physics, Q, River flooding, Environmental and Occupational Health, coastal flooding, flood, Compound flood, SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities, Environmental sciences, Public Health
compound flood, river flooding, Science, QC1-999, Coastal flooding, flood risk, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, 333, Flood, Environmental Science(all), Flood risk, GE1-350, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, Renewable Energy, TD1-1066, Sustainability and the Environment, Physics, Q, River flooding, Environmental and Occupational Health, coastal flooding, flood, Compound flood, SDG 11 - Sustainable Cities and Communities, Environmental sciences, Public Health
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).182 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% visibility views 15 download downloads 27 - 15views27downloads
Data source Views Downloads TU Delft Repository 15 27


