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Environmental Research Letters
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Environmental Research Letters
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Environmental Research Letters
Article . 2020
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Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Authors: Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm; Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm; André F.P. Lucena; Felipe Feijoo; Haewon McJeon; Ricardo Arguello; Ricardo Delgado; +6 Authors

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

Abstract Achieving the Paris Agreement’s near-term goals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of $37–90 billion and investment of $1.9–2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021–2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27%–40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

Keywords

Developing regions, Low emission, Mitigation, Economics, integrated assessment modeling, Science, QC1-999, Food supply, Paris Agreement, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Developing countries, Integrated assessment models, GE1-350, Investments, stranded assets, TD1-1066, Power sector, Retirement, Physics, Q, Stranded assets, Food security, International agreement, Latin america, Carbon, Latin America and the Caribbean, Environmental sciences, Latin America, Investment decisions, Emission control, Integrated assessment modeling, Land use, Standard (regulation), Paris agreement, Investment, Useful lifetime

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    48
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
48
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
gold