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Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

Review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research
Authors: Karl W. Steininger; Ad Jeuken; Elisa Sainz de Murieta; Jochen Hinkel; Kees van Ginkel; Esther Boere; Marjolijn Haasnoot; +7 Authors

Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

Abstract

Abstract Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of ‘response to climate change’. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states.

Countries
United Kingdom, Austria, Italy, Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Italy
Keywords

330, 550, Science, QC1-999, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, systematic review, Environmental Science(all), RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine, SDG 13 - Climate Action, A Journal, GE1-350, SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, Renewable Energy, TD1-1066, General Environmental Science, climate change; socio-economic; stakeholder consultation; systematic review; tipping points, Sustainability and the Environment, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, 330 Wirtschaft, Physics, Q, stakeholder consultation, Environmental and Occupational Health, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 300, 550 Geowissenschaften, Environmental sciences, socio-economic, climate change, tipping points, Public Health, GE Environmental Sciences, ddc: ddc:550, ddc: ddc:330

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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