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Progress in climate change adaptation research

Progress in climate change adaptation research
Abstract The scientific literature on climate change adaptation has become too large to assess manually. Beyond standard scientometrics, questions about if and how the field is progressing thus remain largely unanswered. Here we provide a novel, inquisitive, computer-assisted evidence mapping methodology that combines expert interviews (n = 26) and structural topic modelling to evaluate open-ended research questions on progress in the field. We apply this to 62 191 adaptation-relevant scientific publications (1988–2020), selected through supervised machine learning from a comprehensive climate change query. Comparing the literature to key benchmarks of mature adaptation research, our findings align with trends in the adaptation literature observed by most experts: the field is maturing, growing rapidly, and diversifying, with social science and implementation topics arising next to the still-dominant natural sciences and impacts-focused research. Formally assessing the representativeness of IPCC citations, we find evidence of a delay effect for fast-growing areas of research like adaptation strategies and governance. Similarly, we show significant topic biases by geographic location: especially disaster and development-related topics are often studied in Southern countries by authors from the North, while Northern countries dominate governance topics. Moreover, there is a general paucity of research in some highly vulnerable countries. Experts lastly signal a need for meaningful stakeholder involvement. Expanding on the methods presented here would aid the comprehensive and transparent monitoring of adaptation research. For the evidence synthesis community, our methodology provides an example of how to move beyond the descriptive towards the inquisitive and formally evaluating research questions.
- Leibniz Association Germany
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change Germany
- Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Germany
- University of Leeds United Kingdom
- Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Germany
mixed methods, Science, Physics, QC1-999, Q, adaptation, text mining, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Environmental sciences, climate change, GE1-350, natural language processing, evidence map, TD1-1066
mixed methods, Science, Physics, QC1-999, Q, adaptation, text mining, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Environmental sciences, climate change, GE1-350, natural language processing, evidence map, TD1-1066
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citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).56 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
