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A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems

handle: 11250/3119375 , 10568/129781
Abstract The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
- San Francisco State University United States
- Bogor Agricultural University Indonesia
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Austria
- Instituto Forestal Chile
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Norway
550, Economics, FOS: Political science, 910, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, biodiversidad, climate change mitigation, Natural resource economics, Sociology, Sustainable development, Data and Information, GE1-350, Business, Sustainable Diets, Environmental resource management, Regional science, Political science, TD1-1066, biodiversity, modelización, Global and Planetary Change, Global Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Land Use, Ecology, Geography, Physics, Q, Social-Ecological Systems, Per capita, Agriculture, FOS: Sociology, Food systems, climate change, agricultural models, Sustainability, Archaeology, participatory approaches, Physical Sciences, Sustainable Diets and Environmental Impact, Environmental Engineering, 330, Environmental economics, food systems, Science, QC1-999, Population, trade balance, FOS: Law, modelling, Meteorology and Climatology, Life Cycle Assessment and Environmental Impact Analysis, deforestation, Food Systems, Biology, Demography, FOS: Environmental engineering, food security, Food security, fable, Environmental sciences, sistemas alimentarios, Agriculture and Soil Science, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Land use, Sustainability Assessment, trade, Law
550, Economics, FOS: Political science, 910, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, biodiversidad, climate change mitigation, Natural resource economics, Sociology, Sustainable development, Data and Information, GE1-350, Business, Sustainable Diets, Environmental resource management, Regional science, Political science, TD1-1066, biodiversity, modelización, Global and Planetary Change, Global Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Land Use, Ecology, Geography, Physics, Q, Social-Ecological Systems, Per capita, Agriculture, FOS: Sociology, Food systems, climate change, agricultural models, Sustainability, Archaeology, participatory approaches, Physical Sciences, Sustainable Diets and Environmental Impact, Environmental Engineering, 330, Environmental economics, food systems, Science, QC1-999, Population, trade balance, FOS: Law, modelling, Meteorology and Climatology, Life Cycle Assessment and Environmental Impact Analysis, deforestation, Food Systems, Biology, Demography, FOS: Environmental engineering, food security, Food security, fable, Environmental sciences, sistemas alimentarios, Agriculture and Soil Science, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Land use, Sustainability Assessment, trade, Law
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).5 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
