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Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution

Authors: Jézéquel, Aglaé; Bastos, Ana; Faranda, Davide; Kimutai, Joyce; Le Grix, Natacha; Wilson, Anna; Rufat, Samuel; +11 Authors

Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution

Abstract

Abstract As extreme event attribution (EEA) matures, explaining the impacts of extreme events has risen to be a key focus for attribution scientists. Studies of this type usually assess the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed impacts. Other scientific communities have developed tools to assess how human activities influence impacts of extreme weather events on ecosystems and societies. For example, the disaster risk reduction (DRR) community analyses how the structure of human societies affects exposure, vulnerability, and ultimately the impacts of extreme weather events, with less attention to the role of anthropogenic climate change. In this perspective, we argue that adapting current practice in EEA to also consider other causal factors in attribution of extreme weather impacts would provide richer and more comprehensive insight into the causes of disasters. To this end, we propose a framework for EEA that would generate a more complete picture of human influences on impacts and bridge the gap between the EEA and DRR communities. We provide illustrations for five case studies: the 2021–2022 Kenyan drought; the 2013–2015 marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific; the 2017 forest fires in Portugal; Acqua Alta (flooding) events in Venice and evaluation of the efficiency of the Experimental Electromechanical Module, an ensemble of mobile barriers that can be activated to mitigate the influx of seawater in the city; and California droughts and the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations system as an adaptation strategy.

Keywords

info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, 550, 330, ddc:550, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7, vulnerability, 333.7, 577, attribution, Environmental sciences, Earth sciences, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, exposure, Meteorology. Climatology, GE1-350, QC851-999, extreme event, attribution, extreme event, climate change, vulnerability, exposure

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold