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Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems

pmid: 37780232
pmc: PMC10538477
Abstract The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998–2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982–2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.
- University System of Ohio United States
- University of New Hampshire United States
- Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning China (People's Republic of)
- Département Sciences sociales, agriculture et alimentation, espace et environnement France
- University of Paris-Saclay France
[SDE] Environmental Sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 550, Climate Change and Variability Research, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Pathology, Climate change, Biology, Northern Hemisphere, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences, Ecology, Global Forest Drought Response and Climate Change, Global warming, 500, Geology, Remote Sensing in Vegetation Monitoring and Phenology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Grassland, FOS: Biological sciences, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Medicine, Vegetation (pathology), Climate Modeling
[SDE] Environmental Sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 550, Climate Change and Variability Research, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Pathology, Climate change, Biology, Northern Hemisphere, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences, Ecology, Global Forest Drought Response and Climate Change, Global warming, 500, Geology, Remote Sensing in Vegetation Monitoring and Phenology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Grassland, FOS: Biological sciences, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Medicine, Vegetation (pathology), Climate Modeling
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).10 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
