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Background mortality drivers of European tree species: climate change matters

Increases in tree mortality rates have been highlighted in different biomes over the past decades. However, disentangling the effects of climate change on the temporal increase in tree mortality from those of management and forest dynamics remains a challenge. Using a modelling approach taking tree and stand characteristics into account, we sought to evaluate the impact of climate change on background mortality for the most common European tree species. We focused on background mortality, which is the mortality observed in a stand in the absence of abrupt disturbances, to avoid confusion with mortality events unrelated to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. We studied 372 974 trees including 7312 dead trees from forest inventory data surveyed across France between 2009 and 2015. Factors related to competition, stand characteristics, management intensity, and site conditions were the expected preponderant drivers of mortality. Taking these main drivers into account, we detected a climate change signal on 45% of the 43 studied species, explaining an average 6% of the total modelled mortality. For 18 out of the 19 species sensitive to climate change, we evidenced greater mortality with increasing temperature or decreasing rainfall. By quantifying the mortality excess linked to the current climate change for European temperate forest tree species, we provide new insights into forest vulnerability that will prove useful for adapting forest management to future conditions.
- French National Centre for Scientific Research France
- French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation France
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment France
- University of Lorraine France
- Département Sciences sociales, agriculture et alimentation, espace et environnement France
[SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, Hot Temperature, Broadleaves, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate Change, 577, Forests, environmental science, Trees, Tree mortality, Temperature increase, tree species, [SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry, Climate change, Species distribution models, forest inventory, Mortality, Global change, Drought, Global change and conservation ecology, Global warming, forestry, plant science global change, Forest decline, mortality, Europe, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, temperate forest, France, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Forest ecology, [SDV.SA.SF] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry, Dieback, European forests
[SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, Hot Temperature, Broadleaves, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate Change, 577, Forests, environmental science, Trees, Tree mortality, Temperature increase, tree species, [SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry, Climate change, Species distribution models, forest inventory, Mortality, Global change, Drought, Global change and conservation ecology, Global warming, forestry, plant science global change, Forest decline, mortality, Europe, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, temperate forest, France, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Forest ecology, [SDV.SA.SF] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry, Dieback, European forests
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).44 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
