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Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

يمكن للهندسة الجيولوجية الشمسية أن تعيد توزيع مخاطر الملاريا في البلدان النامية
Authors: Rita R. Colwell; Sadie J. Ryan; Sadie J. Ryan; Sadie J. Ryan; Mohammad Shafiul Alam; Alan Robock; Mohammed Mofizur Rahman; +3 Authors

Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

Abstract

AbstractSolar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the costs or benefits of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing transmission suitability and populations-at-risk today against moderate and high emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering over the next half-century. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from the encroachment of malaria, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we also find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.

Keywords

Sociology and Political Science, Economics, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Social Sciences, Geoengineering, Environmental protection, Climate change mitigation, Natural resource economics, Climate change, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Geography, Ecology, Global warming, Q, Geology, Africa, Eastern, Geoengineering and Climate Ethics, Physical Sciences, Sunlight, Perceptions and Communication of Climate Change, Medicine, Science, Climate Change, Immunology, Greenhouse gas, Article, Environmental science, Humans, Developing Countries, Biology, FOS: Clinical medicine, Impact of Climate Change on Human Health, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Malaria, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    26
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
26
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%