Resilience assessment in complex natural systems
Copyright policy )Resilience assessment in complex natural systems
AbstractEcological resilience is the capability of an ecosystem to maintain the same structure and function and to avoid crossing catastrophic tipping points. While fundamental for management, concrete ways to estimate and interpret resilience in real ecosystems are still lacking. Here, we develop an empirical approach to estimate resilience based on the stochasticcuspmodel derived from catastrophe theory. OurCusp Resilience Assessment(CUSPRA) has three characteristics: i) it provides estimates on how likely a system is to cross a tipping point characterized by hysteresis, ii) it assesses resilience in relation to multiple external drivers, and iii) it produces straightforward results for ecosystem-based management. We validated our approach using simulated data and demonstrated its application using empirical time-series of an Atlantic cod population and of marine ecosystems in the North and the Mediterranean Sea. We show that CUSPRA provides a powerful method to empirically estimate resilience in support of a sustainable management of our constantly adapting ecosystems under global climate change.
- International Livestock Research Institute Kenya
- University of Patras Greece
- Universität Hamburg Germany
- Joint Research Centre Italy
- Joint Research Centre Italy
Urban Metabolism and Sustainability Assessment, Social Sciences, System Dynamics Modeling and Applications, Decision Sciences, Engineering, Sociology, Climate change, Quantifying Sustainability, Environmental resource management, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Geography, Physics, Geology, Cusp (singularity), FOS: Sociology, Gadus morhua, Anticipating Critical Transitions in Ecosystems, Physical Sciences, Thermodynamics, Conservation of Natural Resources, Environmental Engineering, Ecosystem Resilience, Climate Change, Population, Geometry, climate change; ecosystem-based management; regime shifts; resilience; stochastic cusp model; tipping points, Management Science and Operations Research, Models, Biological, Environmental science, Tipping point (physics), Ecosystem Dynamics, Mediterranean Sea, Marine ecosystem, FOS: Mathematics, Animals, Climate Tipping Points, Biology, Ecosystem, Demography, Catastrophe theory, FOS: Environmental engineering, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Geotechnical engineering, Resilience (materials science), FOS: Biological sciences, Electrical engineering, Environmental Science, Sustainability Assessment, Mathematics
Urban Metabolism and Sustainability Assessment, Social Sciences, System Dynamics Modeling and Applications, Decision Sciences, Engineering, Sociology, Climate change, Quantifying Sustainability, Environmental resource management, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Geography, Physics, Geology, Cusp (singularity), FOS: Sociology, Gadus morhua, Anticipating Critical Transitions in Ecosystems, Physical Sciences, Thermodynamics, Conservation of Natural Resources, Environmental Engineering, Ecosystem Resilience, Climate Change, Population, Geometry, climate change; ecosystem-based management; regime shifts; resilience; stochastic cusp model; tipping points, Management Science and Operations Research, Models, Biological, Environmental science, Tipping point (physics), Ecosystem Dynamics, Mediterranean Sea, Marine ecosystem, FOS: Mathematics, Animals, Climate Tipping Points, Biology, Ecosystem, Demography, Catastrophe theory, FOS: Environmental engineering, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Geotechnical engineering, Resilience (materials science), FOS: Biological sciences, Electrical engineering, Environmental Science, Sustainability Assessment, Mathematics
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