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Stochastic Optimization for Security-Constrained Day-Ahead Operational Planning Under PV Production Uncertainties: Reduction Analysis of Operating Economic Costs and Carbon Emissions

Authors: Wen, Xin; Abbes, Dhaker; Francois, Bruno;

Stochastic Optimization for Security-Constrained Day-Ahead Operational Planning Under PV Production Uncertainties: Reduction Analysis of Operating Economic Costs and Carbon Emissions

Abstract

This paper presents a general operational planning framework for controllable generators, one day ahead, under uncertain re-newable energy generation. The effect of photovoltaic (PV) power generation uncertainty on operating decisions is examined by incorporating expected possible uncertainties into a two-stage unit commitment optimization. The planning objective consists in minimizing operating costs and/or equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Based on distributions of forecasting errors of the net demand, a LOLP-based risk assessment method is proposed to determine an appropriate amount of operating reserve (OR) for each time step of the next day. Then, in a first stage, a deterministic optimization within a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) method generates the unit commitment of controllable generators with the day-ahead PV and load demand prediction and the prescribed OR requirement. In a second stage, possible future forecasting uncertainties are considered. Hence, a stochastic operational planning is optimized in order to commit enough flexible generators to handle unexpected deviations from predic-tions. The proposed methodology is implemented for a local energy community. Results regarding the available operating reserve, operating costs and CO2 emissions are established and compared. About 15% of economic operating costs and environmental costs are saved, compared to a deterministic generation planning while ensuring the targeted security level.

Country
France
Keywords

generator scheduling, [SPI.ELEC] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electromagnetism, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, reserve allocation, [MATH] Mathematics [math], stochastic optimization, probabilistic modeling, renewable energy, TK1-9971, [SPI.AUTO] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Automatic, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, Decision making, [SPI.NRJ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    16
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
16
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold