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Artificial Neural Network-based electricity price forecasting for smart grid deployment

Authors: Zeyar Aung; Kasun S. Perera; Wei Lee Woon; Bijay Neupane;

Artificial Neural Network-based electricity price forecasting for smart grid deployment

Abstract

A deregulated electricity market is one of the keystones of up-and-coming smart grid deployments. In such a market, forecasting electricity prices is essential to helping stakeholders with the decision making process. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristics of dynamicity and nonstationarity. In our research, we use an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model on carefully crafted input features for forecasting hourly electricity prices for the next 24 hours. The input features are selected from a pool of features derived from information such as past electricity price data, weather data, and calendar data. A wrapper method for feature selection is used in which the ANN model is continuously trained and updated in order to select the best feature set. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated and compared with the published results of the state-of-the-art Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) method on the same data sets and our method is observed to provide superior results.

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    31
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
31
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%