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Assessment of parameter uncertainty in autoregressive streamflow models for stochastic long-term hydrothermal scheduling

Authors: Mario V. F. Pereira; B. Bezerra; Luiz Barroso;

Assessment of parameter uncertainty in autoregressive streamflow models for stochastic long-term hydrothermal scheduling

Abstract

Hydrothermal systems optimal scheduling requires the representation of uncertainties in future inflows in order to hedge against adverse future low inflows by committing thermal plants, and also to store water in reservoirs while avoiding spillage when high future inflows occur. Stochastic optimization technics has been widely used as a tool for long-term hydrothermal scheduling. These models rely on Monte Carlo simulation in order to capture the inflow uncertainty during the planning horizon. Since the parameters of these models are typically estimated from historical data, it is not surprising that the actual performance of a chosen reservoirs strategy often significantly differs from the designer's initial expectations due to unavoidable modeling ambiguity. The objective of this work is to assess the impact of inflow parameter uncertainty on the stochastic hydrothermal scheduling. The results presented in this work may be useful for the improvement of stochastic optimization techniques. The results presented show that the uncertainty on the parameters of the stochastic model consists on a supplementary source of risk that should be taken into account in the scheduling model.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average