
You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>');
document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=undefined&type=result"></script>');
-->
</script>
Spatio-temporal graph neural networks for multi-site PV power forecasting
Accurate forecasting of solar power generation with fine temporal and spatial resolution is vital for the operation of the power grid. However, state-of-the-art approaches that combine machine learning with numerical weather predictions (NWP) have coarse resolution. In this paper, we take a graph signal processing perspective and model multi-site photovoltaic (PV) production time series as signals on a graph to capture their spatio-temporal dependencies and achieve higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts. We present two novel graph neural network models for deterministic multi-site PV forecasting dubbed the graph-convolutional long short term memory (GCLSTM) and the graph-convolutional transformer (GCTrafo) models. These methods rely solely on production data and exploit the intuition that PV systems provide a dense network of virtual weather stations. The proposed methods were evaluated in two data sets for an entire year: 1) production data from 304 real PV systems, and 2) simulated production of 1000 PV systems, both distributed over Switzerland. The proposed models outperform state-of-the-art multi-site forecasting methods for prediction horizons of six hours ahead. Furthermore, the proposed models outperform state-of-the-art single-site methods with NWP as inputs on horizons up to four hours ahead.
10 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
Signal Processing (eess.SP), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, graph neural networks, forecasting, predictive models, Machine Learning (cs.LG), data models, machine learning, correlation, photovoltaic systems, FOS: Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, convolution, production, weather forecasting, Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Signal Processing, graph signal processing
Signal Processing (eess.SP), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, graph neural networks, forecasting, predictive models, Machine Learning (cs.LG), data models, machine learning, correlation, photovoltaic systems, FOS: Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, convolution, production, weather forecasting, Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Signal Processing, graph signal processing
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).100 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
