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Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

pmid: 27796048
Summary There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37‐year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life‐history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life‐history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study.
- Butterfly Conservation United Kingdom
- Natural Environment Research Council United Kingdom
- University of East Anglia United Kingdom
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology United Kingdom
- Norwich Research Park United Kingdom
Climate Change, Population Dynamics, 590, linear mixed-effects model, sensitivity, Ecology and Environment, United Kingdom, life-history traits, climate change, butterfly population changes, Animals, Seasons, Animal Distribution, Butterflies, Life History Traits, Weather, Ecosystem
Climate Change, Population Dynamics, 590, linear mixed-effects model, sensitivity, Ecology and Environment, United Kingdom, life-history traits, climate change, butterfly population changes, Animals, Seasons, Animal Distribution, Butterflies, Life History Traits, Weather, Ecosystem
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).82 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
