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Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera

Authors: Hällfors, Maria H.; Pöyry, Juha; Heliölä, Janne; Kohonen, Ilmari; Kuussaari, Mikko; Leinonen, Reima; Schmucki, Reto; +3 Authors

Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera

Abstract

AbstractSpecies can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long‐term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.

Countries
Finland, Finland, United Kingdom
Keywords

550, INCREASES, Climate Change, climate change strategies, MISMATCH, perhoset, phenology, boreal Lepidoptera, range shifts, Ecology and Environment, life-history events, BUTTERFLIES, distribution, Animals, MARGINS, global change, sopeutuminen, CLIMATE-CHANGE, BIRDS, Temperature, ilmastonmuutokset, strategiat, Lepidoptera, Ecology, evolutionary biology, ABUNDANCE INDEX, hyönteiset, POPULATIONS, ta1181, PHYLOGENETIC CONSERVATISM, Seasons, leviäminen, RESPONSES

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    54
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
54
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
hybrid
Related to Research communities
Energy Research