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A trait‐based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

AbstractEstimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait‐based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15 000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life‐history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal data set using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life‐history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait‐space‐demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability.
- University of Aberdeen United Kingdom
- Roma Tre University Italy
- Sapienza University of Rome Italy
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology United Kingdom
- Mathematical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences Slovakia
trait space, 570, QH301 Biology, Climate Change, 610, integrodifference equations, 333, Ecology and Environment, QH301, climate change velocity, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Animals, dispersal, NE/J008001/1, SDG 15 - Life on Land, Demography, Mammals, rangeShifter, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), climate change velocity; demographic models; dispersal; integrodifference equations; life-history traits; population spread rate; range shift; rangeShifter; trait space; virtual species, Bayes Theorem, population spread rate, Biodiversity, Models, Theoretical, range shift, life-history traits, demographic models, virtual species, Mathematics
trait space, 570, QH301 Biology, Climate Change, 610, integrodifference equations, 333, Ecology and Environment, QH301, climate change velocity, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Animals, dispersal, NE/J008001/1, SDG 15 - Life on Land, Demography, Mammals, rangeShifter, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), climate change velocity; demographic models; dispersal; integrodifference equations; life-history traits; population spread rate; range shift; rangeShifter; trait space; virtual species, Bayes Theorem, population spread rate, Biodiversity, Models, Theoretical, range shift, life-history traits, demographic models, virtual species, Mathematics
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).71 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
