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Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

AbstractEfforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration United States
- Joint Research Centre Italy
- University of Montpellier France
- Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University Pakistan
- University of Augsburg Germany
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, 550, ta1172, Water en Voedsel, 910, End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture, Model ensemble, 630, Extreme low yields, model ensemble, 1.5°C warming, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Climate change, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, 1.5°C warming; climate change; extreme low yields; food security; model ensemble; wheat production, agriculture, ta415, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, WIMEK, Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen, Water and Food, wheat production, ddc:550, food security, Food security, PE&RC, //metadata.un.org/sdg/2 [http], climate change, Plant Production Systems, extreme low yields, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Wheat production, Water Systems and Global Change, ecology
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, 550, ta1172, Water en Voedsel, 910, End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture, Model ensemble, 630, Extreme low yields, model ensemble, 1.5°C warming, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Climate change, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, 1.5°C warming; climate change; extreme low yields; food security; model ensemble; wheat production, agriculture, ta415, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, WIMEK, Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen, Water and Food, wheat production, ddc:550, food security, Food security, PE&RC, //metadata.un.org/sdg/2 [http], climate change, Plant Production Systems, extreme low yields, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Wheat production, Water Systems and Global Change, ecology
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