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Rethinking false spring risk

AbstractTemperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events—often called false springs—are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research. Many false spring studies largely simplify the myriad complexities involved in assessing false spring risks and damage. While these studies have helped advance the field and may provide useful estimates at large scales, studies at the individual to community levels must integrate more complexity for accurate predictions of plant damage from late spring freezes. Here, we review current metrics of false spring, and how, when, and where plants are most at risk of freeze damage. We highlight how life stage, functional group, species differences in morphology and phenology, and regional climatic differences contribute to the damage potential of false springs. More studies aimed at understanding relationships among species tolerance and avoidance strategies, climatic regimes, and the environmental cues that underlie spring phenology would improve predictions at all biological levels. An integrated approach to assessing past and future spring freeze damage would provide novel insights into fundamental plant biology and offer more robust predictions as climate change progresses, which are essential for mitigating the adverse ecological and economic effects of false springs.
- Harvard University United States
- Département Sciences sociales, agriculture et alimentation, espace et environnement France
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment France
- Arnold Arboretum United States
- Arnold Arboretum United States
570, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, false spring, Climate Change, dégât écologique, phenology, 333, 630, communauté végétale forestière, Freezing, Milieux et Changements globaux, false spring;phenology;freezing tolerance;climate change;forest communities, changement climatique, Plants, freezing tolerance, phénologie, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, tolérance au gel, forest communities, Seasons
570, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, false spring, Climate Change, dégât écologique, phenology, 333, 630, communauté végétale forestière, Freezing, Milieux et Changements globaux, false spring;phenology;freezing tolerance;climate change;forest communities, changement climatique, Plants, freezing tolerance, phénologie, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, tolérance au gel, forest communities, Seasons
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