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Global Change Biology
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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Ecological and methodological drivers of non‐stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Authors: Jan Tumajer; Krešimir Begović; Vojtěch Čada; Michal Jenicek; Jelena Lange; Jiří Mašek; Ryszard J. Kaczka; +4 Authors

Ecological and methodological drivers of non‐stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Abstract

AbstractRadial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non‐stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing biases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non‐stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non‐stationarity, we compiled tree‐ring width chronologies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the distribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non‐linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate–growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non‐stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree of non‐stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non‐stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non‐stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry species distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non‐stationarity compared with monthly‐resolved non‐linear models. We conclude that non‐stationarity in climate–growth responses is a multifactorial phenomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and methodological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non‐stationarity, we recommend that temporal non‐stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate–growth response for temperate forests.

Country
Czech Republic
Keywords

Picea abies, non-stacionarity, Vaganov-Shashkin, Climate Change, dendrochronology, Temperature, Pinus sylvestris, Forests, Pinus, Tracheophyta, climate change, process-based model, soil moisture

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    citations
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    14
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
bronze