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Global Change Biology
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming

Authors: Xiangyi Li; Chris Huntingford; Kai Wang; Jiangpeng Cui; Hao Xu; Fei Kan; Nazhakaiti Anniwaer; +3 Authors

Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming

Abstract

AbstractTemperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing‐season temperature and satellite‐based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001–2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high‐temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.

Countries
United Kingdom, Spain
Keywords

temperature extremes, Hot Temperature, Climate Change, future projection, Plant Development, Climate Models, Global Warming, Vegetation productivity, Compound events, compound events, Climate mitigation policies, Temperature extremes, climate mitigation policies, Ecosystem, thresholds, Temperature, Plants, Future projection, Thresholds, Seasons, vegetation productivity

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    5
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
Related to Research communities
Energy Research