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Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

Authors: Essl, Franz; García‐Rodríguez, Adrián; Lenzner, Bernd; Alexander, Jake M.; Capinha, César; Gaüzère, Pierre; Guisan, Antoine; +8 Authors

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

Abstract

AbstractThe Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change—for example, gradual ‘press’ disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent ‘pulse’ disturbances such as extreme events—affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Countries
Austria, Germany, Austria, Portugal, Portugal, France, Switzerland
Keywords

570, environment/Bioclimatology, Climatic debt, climatic debt, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], invasion debt, Invasion debt, 577, projection, 333, extinction debt, Extinction debt, Niche, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Projection, Species distribution models, species distribution models, colonization credit, 106003 Biodiversity research, climate change; climatic debt; colonization credit; extinction debt; invasion debt; mismatch; niche; projection; species distribution models, 106003 Biodiversitätsforschung, niche, Mismatch, climate change, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, SDG 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz, Perspective, Colonization credit, climate change, climatic debt, colonization credit, extinction debt, invasion debt, mismatch, niche, projection, species distribution models; climate change; climatic debt; colonization credit; extinction debt; invasion debt; mismatch; niche; projection; species distribution models, ddc:570, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, mismatch

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
7
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid