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Coupling a land surface model with a hydrodynamic model for regional flood risk assessment due to climate change: Application to the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Authors: Parthkumar A. Modi; Jonathan A. Czuba; Zachary M. Easton;

Coupling a land surface model with a hydrodynamic model for regional flood risk assessment due to climate change: Application to the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Abstract

AbstractAn increase in heavy precipitation associated with climate change has exacerbated flooding in the Eastern U.S. To assess regional flood risk with changing climatic conditions, we demonstrate the application of a novel hydrologic modeling framework that integrates climate projections with a coupled Noah‐MP land surface model and a two‐dimensional HEC‐RAS hydrodynamic model. We employ this framework along a 41 km reach of the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where recent flood damages exceeded $2 billion (2011 Irene and Lee floods). Historical and future 30‐year and 100‐year peak‐discharge estimates were compared to assess how flood risk might be altered due to climate change. Results indicate that precipitation increases from climate change do not always lead to increases in flood risk, because interplay of hydrological components in the watershed, which are considered by Noah‐MP, largely controls flooding severity. However, climate change is expected to increase the severity of extreme events; if a 50‐year flood (the recurrence interval of Tropical Storm Lee) occurred toward the end of the 21st century in the worst‐case emission scenario, then flood volume would increase by 40% and flood extent by 15%, due to an increase in soil moisture from a wetter overall climate.

Country
United States
Related Organizations
Keywords

HEC-RAS, flood depth, HEC‐RAS, land surface model, TC530-537, flood risk, Disasters and engineering, River protective works. Regulation. Flood control, flood inundation, climate change, global climate models, TA495

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
gold