Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Mémoires en Sciences...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
versions View all 6 versions
addClaim

This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.

On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models

Authors: Didier Swingedouw; Adrien Bily; Claire Esquerdo; Leonard F. Borchert; Giovanni Sgubin; Juliette Mignot; Matthew Menary;

On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models

Abstract

AbstractCMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. The climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over Europe, precipitation pattern in the tropics—most notably the Sahel and Amazon regions—and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. The mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. Analysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models.

Country
France
Keywords

Cold Temperature, Geography, Climate, Climate Change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Models, Theoretical, 551, Atlantic Ocean

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    19
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
19
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid