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Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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The change of the potential occurence of Colorado Potato Beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) in the Czech Republic till 2050

ZMĚNA POTENCIÁLNÍHO ROZŠÍŘENÍ MANDELINKY BRAMBOROVÉ (LEPTINOTARSA DECEMLINEATA, SAY 1824) V ČR BĚHEM PRVNÍ POLOVINY 21. STOLETÍ
Authors: Hana Šefrová; Martin Dubrovský; Jan Juroch; Zdeněk Žalud; E. Kocmánková; Daniela Semerádová; Martin Možný; +1 Authors

The change of the potential occurence of Colorado Potato Beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) in the Czech Republic till 2050

Abstract

This present study is focused on the modeling of the most important potato pest i.e Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824) development in relation to the climate conditions over the area of the Czech Republic. The aim was to develop a model allowing the assessment of the CPB possible spread under the climate change. For the estimation of the CPB occurrence in expected climate conditions we used a dynamic model CLIMEX that enables to determine the suitability of a given location climate for the pests survival and infestation capability based on known pests requirements to the climate conditions. Following the validation and calibration of the model outputs, the meteorological data were altered according to three Global Circulation Models (ECHAM4, HadCM3, NCARPCM) that were driven by two SRES emission scenarios (A2, B1) with two assumed levels of climate system sensitivity for period 2025 and 2050. Model output, for current and expected climate conditions, were visualized by GIS using a digital landscape model. Under all climate change scenarios we noted a widening of CPB distribution area and change in the infestation pressure of the pest.

Keywords

climate change, CLIMEX, S, QH301-705.5, Colorado potato beetle, Agriculture, Biology (General)

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
gold