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Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis
Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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Pest occurrence model in current climate - validation study for European domain

Authors: Svobodová E; Trnka M; Dubrovský M; Semerádová D; Eitzinger J; Žalud Z; Štěpánek P;

Pest occurrence model in current climate - validation study for European domain

Abstract

The present study yields detail validation of the pest occurrence models under current climate in wide European domain. Study organisms involve Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, Ostrinia nubilalis, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Sitobion avenae. Method used in this study belongs to the category climate matching (CLIMEX model) allowing the estimation of areas climatically favourable for species persistence based on the climatic parameters characterising the species development. In the process of model validation parameters were iteratively tested and altered to truly describe the pest presence. The modelled pests presence was verified by comparison of the observed pests occurrence with the number of generations in given modelled area. The notable component of the model parameterization was the sensitivity analyses testing the reaction of species development on changing meteorological items. Parameterization of the factors causing distribution patterns of study species was successful and modelled potential distributions of species correspond well to known core distribution areas for all of these species. This validation study is intended as an initial for forthcoming studies focused on the estimation of geographical shifts of selected pests in the conditions of climate change within the Europe.

Keywords

northern range, S, QH301-705.5, Agriculture, endangered areas, climate change, CLIMEX, Biology (General), pests, climate matching

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
gold