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Science Advances
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Science Advances
Article . 2024
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Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs

Authors: Camille Mellin; Stuart Brown; Neal Cantin; Eduardo Klein-Salas; David Mouillot; Scott F. Heron; Damien A. Fordham;

Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs

Abstract

Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect coral reefs against climate change. Our analysis of daily projections of ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, and onset of severe bleaching risk for global coral reefs this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude coral regions are most vulnerable to thermal stress and will experience little reprieve from climate mitigation. By 2080, coral bleaching is likely to start on most reefs in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round bleaching risk anticipated to be high for some low-latitude reefs regardless of global efforts to mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. By identifying Earth’s reef regions that are at lowest risk of accelerated bleaching, our results will prioritize efforts to limit future loss of coral reef biodiversity.

Keywords

Conservation of Natural Resources, Coral Bleaching, Coral Reefs, Climate Change, Animals, Biodiversity, Anthozoa, Global Warming

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    6
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold
Related to Research communities
Energy Research