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Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2)

To investigate the ability of dynamical seasonal climate predictions for Vietnam, the RegCM4.2 is employed to perform seasonal prediction of 2 m mean (T2m), maximum (Tx), and minimum (Tn) air temperature for the period from January 2012 to November 2013 by downscaling the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) data. For model bias correction, the model and observed climatology is constructed using the CFS reanalysis and observed temperatures over Vietnam for the period 1980–2010, respectively. The RegCM4.2 forecast is run four times per month from the current month up to the next six months. A model ensemble prediction initialized from the current month is computed from the mean of the four runs within the month. The results showed that, without any bias correction (CTL), the RegCM4.2 forecast has very little or no skill in both tercile and value predictions. With bias correction (BAS), model predictions show improved skill. The experiment in which the results from the BAS experiment are further successively adjusted (SUC) with model bias at one-month lead time of the previous run showed further improvement compared to CTL and BAS. Skill scores of the tercile probability forecasts were found to exceed 0.3 for most of the target months.
- VNU University of Science Viet Nam
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Germany
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Germany
- VNU University of Science Viet Nam
- University of Augsburg Germany
Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric sciences, 550, Climate Change and Variability Research, Precipitation, 551, Oceanography, Climate model, Environmental science, Meteorology, Meteorology. Climatology, Downscaling, Climate change, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, Surface air temperature, Geography, ddc:550, Physics, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Earth sciences, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Impacts of Climate Change on Glaciers and Water Availability, QC851-999, Climate Modeling
Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric sciences, 550, Climate Change and Variability Research, Precipitation, 551, Oceanography, Climate model, Environmental science, Meteorology, Meteorology. Climatology, Downscaling, Climate change, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, Surface air temperature, Geography, ddc:550, Physics, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Earth sciences, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Impacts of Climate Change on Glaciers and Water Availability, QC851-999, Climate Modeling
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