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Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2)

التنبؤ الموسمي لدرجة حرارة الهواء السطحي في جميع أنحاء فيتنام باستخدام النموذج المناخي الإقليمي الإصدار 4.2 (RegCM4.2)
Authors: Tan Phan Van; Hiep Van Nguyen; Long Trinh Tuan; Trung Nguyen Quang; Thanh Ngo‐Duc; Patrick Laux; Thanh Nguyen‐Xuan;

Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2)

Abstract

To investigate the ability of dynamical seasonal climate predictions for Vietnam, the RegCM4.2 is employed to perform seasonal prediction of 2 m mean (T2m), maximum (Tx), and minimum (Tn) air temperature for the period from January 2012 to November 2013 by downscaling the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) data. For model bias correction, the model and observed climatology is constructed using the CFS reanalysis and observed temperatures over Vietnam for the period 1980–2010, respectively. The RegCM4.2 forecast is run four times per month from the current month up to the next six months. A model ensemble prediction initialized from the current month is computed from the mean of the four runs within the month. The results showed that, without any bias correction (CTL), the RegCM4.2 forecast has very little or no skill in both tercile and value predictions. With bias correction (BAS), model predictions show improved skill. The experiment in which the results from the BAS experiment are further successively adjusted (SUC) with model bias at one-month lead time of the previous run showed further improvement compared to CTL and BAS. Skill scores of the tercile probability forecasts were found to exceed 0.3 for most of the target months.

Country
Germany
Keywords

Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric sciences, 550, Climate Change and Variability Research, Precipitation, 551, Oceanography, Climate model, Environmental science, Meteorology, Meteorology. Climatology, Downscaling, Climate change, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, Surface air temperature, Geography, ddc:550, Physics, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Earth sciences, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Impacts of Climate Change on Glaciers and Water Availability, QC851-999, Climate Modeling

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    13
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold