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Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate

Authors: Du, Haibo; Donat, Markus G.; Zong, Shengwei; Alexander, Lisa V.; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; +21 Authors

Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate

Abstract

Abstract Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.

Countries
Spain, Spain, South Africa, Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, Netherlands, Spain, Spain
Keywords

550, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE PREDICTION, Precipitation, 910, CLIMATE RECORDS, 551, Climate prediction, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5, Climate records, EXTREME EVENTS, Simulació per ordinador, Climate records;, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate science, Climate change, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1, Extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD), :Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Extreme events, PRECIPITATION, Precipitation forecasting, Canvis climàtics

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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