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Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research Switzerland
- Istanbul Technical University Turkey
- Universitat Polite`cnica de Catalunya Spain
- Government College University, Faisalabad Pakistan
- Nagoya University Japan
550, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE PREDICTION, Precipitation, 910, CLIMATE RECORDS, 551, Climate prediction, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5, Climate records, EXTREME EVENTS, Simulació per ordinador, Climate records;, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate science, Climate change, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1, Extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD), :Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Extreme events, PRECIPITATION, Precipitation forecasting, Canvis climàtics
550, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE PREDICTION, Precipitation, 910, CLIMATE RECORDS, 551, Climate prediction, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5, Climate records, EXTREME EVENTS, Simulació per ordinador, Climate records;, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate science, Climate change, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1, Extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD), :Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Extreme events, PRECIPITATION, Precipitation forecasting, Canvis climàtics
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).27 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 223 download downloads 57 - 223views57downloads
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