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Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5—4.5°C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850), but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarize attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.
- Université Catholique de Louvain Belgium
- King's College London United Kingdom
- University of Bristol United Kingdom
- Kings College London, University of London United Kingdom
- Kings College London, University of London United Kingdom
FOS: Physical sciences, Future climates, Climate sensitivity, Palaeoclimate, 333, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), Climate change, Model evaluation
FOS: Physical sciences, Future climates, Climate sensitivity, Palaeoclimate, 333, Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), Climate change, Model evaluation
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).59 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
