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PLOS Climate
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/z0...
Other literature type . 2023
Data sources: Datacite
https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/52...
Other literature type . 2023
Data sources: Datacite
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Model-based scenarios for achieving net negative emissions in the food system

السيناريوهات القائمة على النماذج لتحقيق صافي الانبعاثات السلبية في النظام الغذائي
Authors: Maya Almaraz; Benjamin Z. Houlton; Michael Clark; Iris Holzer; Yuan Zhou; Laura Vang Rasmussen; Emily Moberg; +8 Authors

Model-based scenarios for achieving net negative emissions in the food system

Abstract

Most climate mitigation scenarios point to a combination of GHG emission reductions and CO2removal for avoiding the most dangerous climate change impacts this century. The global food system is responsible for ~1/3 of GHG emissions and thus plays an important role in reaching emission targets. Consumers, technology innovation, industry, and agricultural practices offer various degrees of opportunity to reduce emissions and remove CO2. However, a question remains as to whether food system transformation can achieve net negative emissions (i.e., where GHG sinks exceed sources sector wide) and what the capacity of the different levers may be. We use a global food system model to explore the influence of consumer choice, climate-smart agro-industrial technologies, and food waste reductions for achieving net negative emissions for the year 2050. We analyze an array of scenarios under the conditions of full yield gap closures and caloric demands in a world with 10 billion people. Our results reveal a high-end capacity of 33 gigatonnes of net negative emissions per annum via complete food system transformation, which assumes full global deployment of behavioral-, management- and technology-based interventions. The most promising technologies for achieving net negative emissions include hydrogen-powered fertilizer production, livestock feeds, organic and inorganic soil amendments, agroforestry, and sustainable seafood harvesting practices. On the consumer side, adopting flexitarian diets cannot achieve full decarbonization of the food system but has the potential to increase the magnitude of net negative emissions when combined with technology scale-up. GHG reductions ascribed to a mixture of technology deployment and dietary shifts emerge for many different countries, with areas of high ruminant production and non-intensive agricultural systems showing the greatest per capita benefits. This analysis highlights potential for future food systems to achieve net negative emissions using multifaceted “cradle-to-grave” and “land-to-sea” emission reduction strategies that embrace emerging climate-smart agro-industrial technologies.

Keywords

Sustainable Diets and Environmental Impact, Environmental Engineering, Food processing, Environmental economics, Economics, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Food science, Engineering, Natural resource economics, Life Cycle Assessment and Environmental Impact Analysis, Climate change, Food Systems, Business, Sustainable Diets, Waste management, Biology, Ecology, Food waste, FOS: Environmental engineering, Life Sciences, Agriculture, Food security, Food systems, Chemistry, FOS: Biological sciences, Global Food System, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Food Waste Management and Reduction, Food Science

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    8
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold