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Growing Season Temperatures in Europe and Climate Forcings Over the Past 1400 Years

The lack of instrumental data before the mid-19th-century limits our understanding of present warming trends. In the absence of direct measurements, we used proxies that are natural or historical archives recording past climatic changes. A gridded reconstruction of spring-summer temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen assemblages and ice cores. The majority of proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variation, they were completed by low-resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data.An original spectral analog method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and to preserve long-term variations and the variability of temperature series. So we can replace the recent climate changes in a broader context of the past 1400 years. This preservation is possible because the method is not based on a calibration (regression) but on similarities between assemblages of proxies. The reconstruction of the April-September temperatures was validated with a Jack-knife technique. It was also compared to other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings.We found that our results were accurate back to 750. Cold periods prior to the 20(th) century can be explained partly by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) could be correlated to higher solar activity. During the 20(th) century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise. Warm periods of the Middle Age were spatially more heterogeneous than last decades, and then locally it could have been warmer. However, at the continental scale, the last decades were clearly warmer than any period of the last 1400 years. The heterogeneity of MWP versus the homogeneity of the last decades is likely an argument that different forcings could have operated. These results support the fact that we are living a climate change in Europe never seen in the past 1400 years.
- Public Library of Science United States
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment France
- French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation France
- French National Centre for Scientific Research France
- Département Sciences sociales, agriculture et alimentation, espace et environnement France
550, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Summer, Science, Climate, Climate Change, 551, History, 18th Century, History, 21st Century, Trees, [ SDE ] Environmental Sciences, History, 17th Century, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climate change, Solar Activity, History, 15th Century, Data Collection, Q, Ice, R, Temperature, Records, History, 19th Century, History, Medieval, Europe, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, History, 16th Century, Ice cores, Medicine, Pollen, Volcanoes, Seasons, Glaciers, Research Article
550, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Summer, Science, Climate, Climate Change, 551, History, 18th Century, History, 21st Century, Trees, [ SDE ] Environmental Sciences, History, 17th Century, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climate change, Solar Activity, History, 15th Century, Data Collection, Q, Ice, R, Temperature, Records, History, 19th Century, History, Medieval, Europe, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, History, 16th Century, Ice cores, Medicine, Pollen, Volcanoes, Seasons, Glaciers, Research Article
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