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A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality

Authors: Guo, Yuming; Barnett, Adrian; Yu, Wei Wei; Pan, Xiaochuan; Ye, Xiaofang; Huang, Cunrui; Tong, Shilu;

A Large Change in Temperature between Neighbouring Days Increases the Risk of Mortality

Abstract

Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987-2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean.In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65-74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥ 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Country
Australia
Keywords

Temperature Change, Adult, Male, Risk, Time Factors, Climate Change, Science, Population, Cardiovascular, Body Temperature, Heat-related mortality, Humans, Mortality, Weather, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Q, Australia, R, Temperature, Middle Aged, Los Angeles, United States, Circadian Rhythm, Up-Regulation, Case-crossover analysis, Respiratory, Medicine, Female, Queensland, Seasons, Body Temperature Regulation

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
122
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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