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How to Decide Whether to Move Species Threatened by Climate Change

Introducing species to areas outside their historical range to secure their future under climate change is a controversial strategy for preventing extinction. While the debate over the wisdom of this strategy continues, such introductions are already taking place. Previous frameworks for analysing the decision to introduce have lacked a quantifiable management objective and mathematically rigorous problem formulation. Here we develop the first rigorous quantitative framework for deciding whether or not a particular introduction should go ahead, which species to prioritize for introduction, and where and how to introduce them. It can also be used to compare introduction with alternative management actions, and to prioritise questions for future research. We apply the framework to a case study of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) in New Zealand. While simple and accessible, this framework can accommodate uncertainty in predictions and values. It provides essential support for the existing IUCN guidelines by presenting a quantitative process for better decision-making about conservation introductions.
- University of Melbourne Australia
- University of Queensland Australia
- International Union for Conservation of Nature Bangladesh
- University of Queensland Australia
- University of Western Australia Australia
570, Conservation of Natural Resources, 1300 Biochemistry, Science, Climate Change, Decision Making, Population Dynamics, 710, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Extinction, Biological, 1100 Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Animals, Computer Simulation, Ecosystem, Models, Statistical, Q, R, Uncertainty, 500, Lizards, Multidisciplinary Sciences, 2700 Medicine, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Medicine, Animal Distribution, Research Article, Forecasting, New Zealand
570, Conservation of Natural Resources, 1300 Biochemistry, Science, Climate Change, Decision Making, Population Dynamics, 710, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Extinction, Biological, 1100 Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Animals, Computer Simulation, Ecosystem, Models, Statistical, Q, R, Uncertainty, 500, Lizards, Multidisciplinary Sciences, 2700 Medicine, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Medicine, Animal Distribution, Research Article, Forecasting, New Zealand
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).41 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
