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A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account.
- Maastricht University Netherlands
Biomedical Technology, technologie biomédicale, Global Health, santé mondiale, Communicable Diseases, Communicable Diseases, Emerging, indicateur état sanitaire, Communicable diseases, Emerging/epidemiology, Health Status Indicators, Humans, facteurs épidémiologiques, Emerging, Epidemiologic factors, durabilité, prévision, Health status indicators, World health/trends, Biomedical technology, Sustainability, maladies transmissibles émergentes, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Forecasting
Biomedical Technology, technologie biomédicale, Global Health, santé mondiale, Communicable Diseases, Communicable Diseases, Emerging, indicateur état sanitaire, Communicable diseases, Emerging/epidemiology, Health Status Indicators, Humans, facteurs épidémiologiques, Emerging, Epidemiologic factors, durabilité, prévision, Health status indicators, World health/trends, Biomedical technology, Sustainability, maladies transmissibles émergentes, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Forecasting
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).5 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
