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Ecology
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Ecology
Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
Ecology
Article . 2009
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Projected climate‐induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

Authors: Lawler, Joshua J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; White, Denis; Kareiva, Peter; Maurer, Edwin P.; Blaustein, Andrew R.; Bartlein, Patrick J.;

Projected climate‐induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate‐change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future‐climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today.

Country
United States
Keywords

Civil and Environmental Engineering, Greenhouse Effect, Conservation of Natural Resources, climate envelope models, Population Dynamics, Models, Biological, 333, range shifts, Amphibians, Birds, Species Specificity, Predictive Value of Tests, Animals, mammals, Ecosystem, Demography, Mammals, Population Density, amphibians, climate change, species distributions, birds, future projections, Algorithms

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    373
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
373
Top 1%
Top 1%
Top 1%
Green
bronze