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A scenario analysis of potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Tunisian electricity sector

تحليل سيناريو للتأثيرات المحتملة طويلة الأجل لـ COVID -19 على قطاع الكهرباء التونسي
Authors: Mark Howells; Mark Howells; Franziska Bock; Francesco Gardumi; Chiheb Bouden; Nesrine Mhiri; Thameur Necibi;

A scenario analysis of potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Tunisian electricity sector

Abstract

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the economy of Tunisia, like that of many other countries. With electricity consumption dropping, consumption patterns changing, international fuel prices plummeting and uncertainty raging, the pandemic has affected not least the planning of investments in electricity supply. Although the government seems unlikely to revise the decarbonisation targets downwards, questions arise on whether the investments planned before the pandemic are still relevant in the changed global landscape and what effects they may have on the country’s economy.In this study, we analyse post-pandemic scenarios for the electricity supply system of Tunisia with an energy-economy modelling framework, soft-linking the energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS and an open source Input-Output model. We extract insights on the cost-competitiveness of different – previously planned and new – electricity supply solutions and their impacts on job creation and loss in the entire economy. We find that renewable solutions based on solar photovoltaic remain highly competitive with gas-fired generation under different projections of gas prices and that several low-carbon and energy efficiency solutions have high potential for job creation.

Keywords

Building Energy Efficiency and Thermal Comfort Optimization, Renewable energy, Economics, Energy supply, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Engineering, Electricity, Natural resource economics, Sociology, Pathology, Government (linguistics), Business, Disease, Photovoltaic system, Mains electricity, Energy, Physics, Statistics, Economy, Open source, Power (physics), Social science, Pollution, FOS: Philosophy, ethics and religion, FOS: Sociology, Consumption (sociology), Input-output, Physical Sciences, Medicine, HD9502-9502.5, Energy-economy, Tunisia, Environmental economics, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, Quantum mechanics, Electricity system, FOS: Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Indoor Air Pollution in Developing Countries, FOS: Mathematics, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Electricity generation, Integration of Renewable Energy Systems in Power Grids, COVID-19, Voltage, Linguistics, Building and Construction, Hydrogen Energy Systems and Technologies, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Philosophy, Electrical engineering, Environmental Science, FOS: Languages and literature, Techno-Economic Analysis, Energy (signal processing), OSeMOSYS, Mathematics

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    11
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%