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Is the 2040 Projection on Net Electricity Generation by Energy Information Administration Too Conservative? In Comparison to Alternate Projection Using Experience Curve

Authors: Yu Sang Chang; Yoo-Taek Lee; Sung Jun Jo; Jong Hyun Yi;
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2732488
Abstract
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy has projected net electricity generation through 2040 for ten selected countries and the world. These ten countries including China and the U.S. are projected to produce 70% of the world electricity generation. Some of the past projections by EIA have been rated too conservative. Using a simple experience curve, we produce alternative projections for comparison. Our projections are significantly higher for eight out of the ten countries. Utilities operating in these eight countries may need to reexamine their plan for future net electricity generation.
Related Organizations
- Gachon University Korea (Republic of)
- Boston College United States
- Gachon University Korea (Republic of)
- Woosong University Korea (Republic of)
- Woosong University Korea (Republic of)
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).1 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average

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citations
Citations provided by BIP!
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
popularity
Popularity provided by BIP!
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
1
Average
Average
Average