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ГИДРОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ В ЛЕДНИКОВЫХ БАССЕЙНАХ Р.ТАРИМ, ЦЕНТРАЛЬНАЯ АЗИЯ: НАБЛЮДАЕМЫЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ РАСХОДОВ ВОДЫ И ОЦЕНКА БУДУЩИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ

Hydrological Change in Glacier Covered Headwater Catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia: Observed Streamflow Changes and Future Projections
Authors: Doris, D.; Sergiy, V.; Daniel, F.; Christoph, M.; Bruno, M.; David, K.; Tobias, B.; +4 Authors

ГИДРОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ В ЛЕДНИКОВЫХ БАССЕЙНАХ Р.ТАРИМ, ЦЕНТРАЛЬНАЯ АЗИЯ: НАБЛЮДАЕМЫЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ РАСХОДОВ ВОДЫ И ОЦЕНКА БУДУЩИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ

Abstract

This study aims at improving our understanding of observed runoff changes in two glacier covered headwater catchments of the Tarim River in north-west China over the last 50 years, as well as at assessing possible future changes of glaciers and the water balance due to climate change. To this end, we applied an approach based on hydrological modeling. In order to increase the robustness of the results, the model was calibrated in a multi-objective way using daily runoff data, long-term runoff trends, and glacier mass balance data. The results show that the runoff increase over the last 50 years is to a large extent due to an increase in air temperature and an associated increase in glacier melt. Simulations with climate scenarios indicate a further temperature-induced increase of glacier melt in the beginning of the 21st century, but then glacier melt declines due to decreasing glacier areas. Decreasing glacier melt and increasing evapotranspiration result, despite projected increases in precipitation, in decreases of total discharge in 2070-2099 compared to 1971-2000.

Целью данного исследования является анализ наблюдаемых изменений стока в двух горно-ледниковых бассейнов р. Тарима на северо-западе Китая за последние 50 лет, а также оценка возможных будущих изменений ледников и водного баланса, вызванные изменением климата. Для этой цели использовалась гидрологическая модель. Чтобы повысить надежность результатов, модель была откалибрована многоцелевым методом на основе ежедневных данных расходов воды, долгосрочных трендах и балансе массы ледников. Результаты показывают, что увеличение расходов за последние 50 лет во многом связано с увеличением температуры и связынным с этим усилением таяния ледников. Моделирование по климатическим сценариям показывает сперва дальнейшее увеличение талого стока связанного с повышением температуры в XXI веке, однако в дальнейшем с уменьшением ледниковой массы, результаты указывают на значительное снижение ледникового стока. Вместе с увеличением испарения это приводит к уменьшению общего расхода в 2070-2099 гг. по сравнению с 1971-2000 гг.

Keywords

изменение климата, Tien Shan, многоцелевая калибровка, hydrological modeling, multi-objective calibration, ледники, гидрологическое моделирование, climate change, trend attribution, выяснение причин трендов, glaciers, Тянь-Шань

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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