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Assessment and Prediction of Maize Production Considering Climate Change by Extreme Learning Machine in Czechia

Machine learning algorithms have been applied in the agriculture field to forecast crop productivity. Previous studies mainly focused on the whole crop growth period while different time windows on yield prediction were still unknown. The entire growth period was separated into each month to assess their corresponding predictive ability by taking maize production (silage and grain) in Czechia. We present a thorough assessment of county-level maize yield prediction in Czechia using a machine learning algorithm (extreme learning machine (ELM)) and an extensive set of weather data and maize yields from 2002 to 2018. Results show that sunshine in June and water deficit in July were vastly influential factors for silage maize yield. The two primary climate parameters for grain maize yield are minimum temperature in September and water deficit in May. The average absolute relative deviation (AARD), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient (R2) of the proposed models are 6.565–32.148%, 1.006–1.071%, 0.641–0.716, respectively. Based on the results, silage yield will decrease by 1.367 t/ha (3.826% loss), and grain yield will increase by 0.337 t/ha (5.394% increase) when the max temperature in May increases by 2 °C. In conclusion, ELM models show a great potential application for predicting maize yield.
- University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice Czech Republic
- Ceska zemedelska univerzita v Praze Czech Republic
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
- University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice Czech Republic
- Ceska zemedelska univerzita v Praze Czech Republic
S, Agriculture, maize yield, climate change, extreme machine learning, climate change; Czech Republic; extreme machine learning; maize yield, Czech Republic
S, Agriculture, maize yield, climate change, extreme machine learning, climate change; Czech Republic; extreme machine learning; maize yield, Czech Republic
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