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Two Ways to Quantify Korean Drought Frequency: Partial Duration Series and Bivariate Exponential Distribution, and Application to Climate Change

Authors: Jeongeun Won; Jeonghyeon Choi; Okjeong Lee; Moo Jong Park; Sangdan Kim;

Two Ways to Quantify Korean Drought Frequency: Partial Duration Series and Bivariate Exponential Distribution, and Application to Climate Change

Abstract

Studies using drought index to examine return levels of drought can be classified into two approaches: univariate frequency analysis using annual series extracted from drought index time series and multivariate frequency analysis that simultaneously reflects various characteristics of drought. In the case of drought analysis, it is important to properly consider the duration, so, in this study, univariate frequency analysis is performed using the partial duration series. In addition, a bivariate frequency analysis is performed using a relatively simple bivariate exponential distribution to give a more realistic return level to major drought events in the past while reflecting the correlation between drought severities and durations. The drought severity–duration–frequency curves using each of the two frequency analyses are derived, and these curves are used to examine how the drought phenomenon currently in progress is evolving. From this, the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches, as well as the points to be aware of in application, are discussed. Finally, using the two approaches to the proposed drought frequency analysis, the behavior of Korea’s future extreme droughts is investigated under the conditions of various future climate change scenarios.

Related Organizations
Keywords

bivariate exponential distribution, standard precipitation index, partial duration series, drought severity–duration–frequency curve, Korean drought, climate change, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    9
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold