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Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice

Authors: Chia-Lin Chang; Yiying Li; Michael McAleer;

Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice

Abstract

Energy and agricultural commodities and markets have been examined extensively, albeit separately, for a number of years. In the energy literature, the returns, volatility and volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or covolatility in another asset), among alternative energy commodities, such as oil, gasoline and ethanol across different markets, have been analysed using a variety of univariate and multivariate models, estimation techniques, data sets, and time frequencies. A similar comment applies to the separate theoretical and empirical analysis of a wide range of agricultural commodities and markets. Given the recent interest and emphasis in bio-fuels and green energy, especially bio-ethanol, which is derived from a range of agricultural products, it is not surprising that there is a topical and developing literature on the spillovers between energy and agricultural markets. Modelling and testing spillovers between the energy and agricultural markets has typically been based on estimating multivariate conditional volatility models, specifically the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK) and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models. A serious technical deficiency is that the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimates (QMLE) of a Full BEKK matrix, which is typically estimated in examining volatility spillover effects, has no asymptotic properties, except by assumption, so that no valid statistical test of volatility spillovers is possible. Some papers in the literature have used the DCC model to test for volatility spillovers. However, it is well known in the financial econometrics literature that the DCC model has no regularity conditions, and that the QMLE of the parameters of DCC has no asymptotic properties, so that there is no valid statistical testing of volatility spillovers. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the theory and practice in testing for volatility spillovers between energy and agricultural markets using the multivariate Full BEKK and DCC models, and to make recommendations as to how such spillovers might be tested using valid statistical techniques. Three new definitions of volatility and covolatility spillovers are given, and the different models used in empirical applications are evaluated in terms of the new definitions and statistical criteria.

Countries
Spain, Taiwan, Netherlands, Taiwan
Keywords

Technology, Q42, definitions of spillovers, Energy markets, Agricultural markets, Volatility and covolatility spillovers, Univariate and multivariate conditional volatility models, BEKK, DCC, Definitions of spillovers., 5302 Econometría, C58, Kraft, univariate and multivariate conditional volatility models, DCC, Engle, T, Covolatility spillovers, O13, Energy markets, agricultural markets, volatility and covolatility spillovers, univariate and multivariate conditional volatility models, BEKK, DCC, definitions of spillovers, Agricultural markets, Definitions of spillovers, C22, Univariate and multivariate conditional volatility models, Definitions of spillovers., 330, Dynamic conditional correlation, dynamic conditional correlation, volatility and covolatility spillovers, Volatility and covolatility spillovers, Baba, Econometría (Economía), Univariate, G32, agricultural markets, C32, BEKK, And Kroner, Multivariate conditional volatility models, Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner, Energy markets, and Kroner, energy markets, Volatility, Econometría, jel: jel:C22, jel: jel:C58, jel: jel:O13, jel: jel:O10, jel: jel:Q42, jel: jel:C32, jel: jel:G32, ddc: ddc:330

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
30
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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